It seems like the price of SSDs will continue to fallAs revealed by market analyst TrendForce, market oversupply intensified in the last quarter (Q2) due to lagged demand and continued progress in the production and processing of NAND-Flash. This is explained by memory price drop to reactivate the market.
As the analyst revealed, material inventory levels continue to rise and have become a risk to the supply chain. Due to the slow destocking of distributors and the conservative attitude of customers, inventory issues have shifted to the supply side and sellers are under increased pressure to sell. TrendForce believes that due to the rapidly deteriorating balance between supply and demand, the decline in NAND Flash memory prices will be extended to 8~13% in the third quarterand this decline could continue during the last quarter of the year.
About SSDs for CustomersDue to weak consumer demand, several PC brands significantly reduced their order volume in the third quarter to digest SSD inventory from the first quarter. As vendors focus on 176-layer client SSDs, QLC 176-layer SSDs have started shipping, and YMTC plans to expand client SSD shipment for laptops in the second quarter. Price competition has become increasingly fierce, forcing manufacturers to increase price concessions to entice customers to increase order volumes. Thus, the price decline of consumer SSDs is expected to increase up to 8~13% at T3.
Regarding eMMC memoryWeak demand for major apps such as Chromebooks and TVs has prompted buyers to watch inventory carefully, so it’s hard to see any signs of life in eMMC prices. Although manufacturers’ long-term plans imply a continued reduction in 2D eMMC product offerings to maintain price stability. Therefore, the price of eMMC in 3Q22 will fall further by 8 to 13%.
As for NAND Flash Wafers, a pick-up in peak season demand and the lifting of lockdowns in China were initially expected to cool the market. However, demand continues to deteriorate and inventories at module factories and end customers remain high, leading to a sustained decline in wafer prices. At the same time, manufacturers continue to expand wafer offerings and process optimization continues to improve, leading to increased inventory pressure on mills. NAND flash wafer price drop set to expand up to 15~20% at T3.