This was perhaps the last industry to speak out against the debacle unfolding across the entire PC and server industry and yes HDDs have also succumbed to what we can now more than officially call it a recession, or even a crisis. HDDs are losing no less than 15.4% of their shipments and, moreover, SSDs are gaining momentum to the detriment of the former. Is it just a momentary setback? Or is this recession really the start of the definitive hard disk crisis as we always say?
Well, we don’t believe that it’s the crisis in the HDD industry that’s going to bring them down, what’s more, they will surely not end up disappearing until SSDs reach them in capacity, and besides, for the moment, there is no indication that this will be the case. Moreover, there is a very relevant fact that is given in today’s report which goes a little in this direction.
The second quarter of 2022 was crazy for hard drives: they enter a recession
Driven by the current market and economic situation, hard disk manufacturers are literally imposing themselves with an off-peak PC sector. Moreover, the competition with its eternal rival does not help to deal with the situation either, since the SSDs run a parallel path, but with different data.
Rivals see how cheap its price is given the huge stock available to manufacturers, who compete head-to-head to sell at a time when hardly anyone is buying. In addition, there is a significant indirect incentive such as the fact that Microsoft is going to require an SSD as the primary storage unit in Windows 11, which causes many to leave their hard drive as a secondary and prefer to buy an SSD. . .
Therefore, the data is very clear: HDD shipments for Q2 2022 were 44.65 million units, down 15.4% from the previous quarter.
The impact of capacity versus number of shipments
We already know how many were sold and how many shipments dropped, what we didn’t know was that the total capacity of all those shipments added to the units shipped only dropped by 2%. Or what amounts to the same thing, fewer hard drives are being sold, but the ones that have been shipped have a much higher capacity. This ties into what was said three paragraphs above, where SSDs occupy user systems and HDDs are left for storage.
In terms of brands, Seagate ranks 44.5% of the market right now with a total shipment of 19.88 million unitswhere from these it went from an average capacity of 1.2TB nothing less than 7.8TB, a sharp increase. For its part, Western Digital covers the market at 36.9% with deliveries of no less than 16.48 million unitswhere curiously their average capacity is identical to that of Seagate, i.e. 7.8TB.
Toshiba ranks third with a 18.6% of total shipments and 8.29 million unitswhere its average capacity increased to 4.4TB. Thus, small and medium capacities are purchased by SSDs and only leave room for HDDs in the multiTB range, where they have their place and survive. This could change, at least in part, with the arrival of PLC NAND Flash cells, where it is hoped that SSD capacity will double, while hard drives struggle in the midst of the recession to reach technologies such as MAMR for the consumer market and not both for enterprises and servers.